Canada fire weather outlook

Each week during the wildfire season, Dr. Mike Flannigan will share a five- to 10-day fire weather outlook for Canada. This is a first step in developing a national early warning system for wildfire in Canada. The fire weather outlook will be posted every Tuesday.

Mike Flannigan is the scientific director of the Institute for Wildfire Science, Adaptation, and Resiliency as well as the BC Innovation Research Chair in Predictive Services, Emergency Management and Fire Science at Thompson Rivers University.

View bio

Weekly Outlook | September 5-10, 2026 Issued September 1, 2026

All information provided below is reported at the time of publication and may not reflect more recent updates.

Current fire situationIs the Fire Season Over?

September is typically a quiet month for fire activity, but there are notable exceptions. In 2023, numerous pyroCbs (fire-generated thunderstorms) over northeastern BC, northern Alberta, and the southern NWT produced the highest daily area burned on record (440,000 ha) on September 22nd. September 2006 also saw significant lightning-caused fire outbreak in northwestern Ontario. As temperatures cool and day length shortens, conditions become progressively less conducive to fire weather. While it is too early to say with certainty, the fire season appears to be winding down across much of the country, though some fire-conducive periods may still occur (see the A Look Ahead section below).

Fire weather outlook September 5-10, 2026

The quiet fire weather trend continues through the next ten days. The only exception may be southern NWT, where numerous fires remain on the landscape. Figure 1 shows forecast precipitation during the outlook period, with most areas expected to receive rainfall.

Figure 1. ECMWF 120-hour Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for North America on September 10th, 2026.

A look ahead

The Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) probabilistic and deterministic outlooks for September-November are now available. Figure 2 shows the September-November deterministic temperature anomaly outlook for Canada. Almost all of Canada is expected to be warmer than normal. The deterministic precipitation anomaly outlook for the same period is shown in Figure 3; the far north and far south are expected to receive above-normal precipitation, while the central band is forecast to see normal to below-normal precipitation. Given this pattern, BC and the southern NWT may experience some conducive fire weather this fall.

Figure 2. September – November deterministic temperature anomaly outlook for Canada.

Figure 3. September – November deterministic precipitation anomaly outlook for Canada. weather.gc.ca

Useful Websites Satellite Imagery

This week’s recommendation is a satellite website for fire and weather monitoring. The rammb slider from CIRA at Colorado State University (my alma mater so I may be biased) is my go-to source for satellite imagery. I have been using GOES Satellite imagery for over 30 years and have found it invaluable for weather forecasting and real-time fire monitoring. These satellites have an altitude of about 35,800 km above the equator and this allows the satellite to be stationary above one location along the equator, hence the term geostationary. There are a series of satellites (also available on this website) that cover the globe except at very high latitudes (of course, this is an issue for Canada).

For North America, the relevant satellites are GOES-West (GOES-18) and GOES-East (GOES-19). There are many bands on these satellites and in particular, for fire, there is the 3.9 micron band (Band 7), which is sensitive to high temperatures characteristic of wildfires (Figure 4). GeoColor imagery is also useful for identifying smoke, often visible before a heat signature appears. Other bands display cloud-top temperatures, which can help determine whether a developing storm is a pyroCb.

The key feature is that an image is captured every ten minutes, with five-minute and even one minute imagery possible in some cases, and these images are available in almost real time. From these images, loops can be produced and this provides valuable information about trends in fire activity – whether it is increasing or decreasing. The GeoColor loop of the Bald Range Fire in Figure 5 is a good example, showing a rapidly intensifying wildfire. There are numerous sites that provide satellite imagery so find the site that works best for you.

science.nasa.gov/mission/goes
rammb2.cira.colostate.edu

Figure 4. GOES-West 3.9-micron imagery loop from August 26th, 2026, showing fires in the Northwest Territories. White areas represent active or intense fires and red areas represent very active or intense fires.